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Ask a scientist at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) "are earthquakes on the rise?" and their answer is "As more and more seismographs are installed in the world, more earthquakes can be and have been located. However, the number of large earthquakes (magnitude 6.0 and greater) has stayed relatively constant." And: "Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant."
This is not true. Data is data. It cannot at the same time be extra sensitive & giving more information, yet be fairly constant and the data really stays the same. Those two statements are at odds with each other. Below their explanation about the number of large quakes staying constant, they present a chart. Not included in the chart data (but is included above it) is the number of average earthquakes for that particular magnitude. For the last eleven years, including this partial year, there would be 44 data points for quakes in the 5, 6, 7, and 8 magnitude. Of those 44, 22 are running above the average. Half of the categories are higher than average, which means it is not "fairly constant."
They continue:
"A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day."
If we accept their explanation about advanced sensitive seismological instruments in more places are helping them to locate more earthquakes each year, let's cut off the data at 2005 and start from 2006 (meaning we look at three and a half years of data). I cannot believe that in the last three years the USGS has placed so many new seisomological pieces of equipment at every station so that the data would be gathered at such a dramatically increased pace. Looking at the last few years, we have 24 data points, and we are still running more than fifty percent above average.
*running ahead of average
red indicates categories exceeding annual average
You can search for yourself. The USGS allows data input by year, depth, magnitude, and intensity. I searched for year and magnitude. The USGS's insistence that earthquakes are not increasing is not supported by the data. I agree, one year of higher than average earthquakes in a category or two would be an anomaly. However, almost every category running higher than average for several years in a row, is not an anomaly. It is a pattern.
Christians know that one of God's signature languages is earthquakes. Throughout human history He has used them to demonstrate His power, His wrath, and His promises. A keyword search for "earthquake" in the bible results in many examples, here. One of them is:
"From the LORD of hosts you will be punished with thunder and earthquake and loud noise, With whirlwind and tempest and the flame of a consuming fire." (Isaiah 29:6)
One of them will be: "And there were flashes of lightning and sounds and peals of thunder; and there was a great earthquake, such as there had not been since man came to be upon the earth, so great an earthquake was it, and so mighty." (Rev 16:18)
We are promised that the signs of the end will contain earthquakes: "For nation will rise up against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be earthquakes in various places; there will also be famines. These things are merely the beginning of birth pangs." (Mark 13:8)
Who are you going to believe? Man, who says everything is normal and earthquakes are not increasing? Or God, who said He will send earthquakes as a sign of the beginning of the birthpangs? I always believe God and I can see that earthquakes are increasing. This means Jesus will return soon, because we're promised that as soon as you see these things begin to happen, look up, for your Redemption draws nigh. Are you ready?
This is not true. Data is data. It cannot at the same time be extra sensitive & giving more information, yet be fairly constant and the data really stays the same. Those two statements are at odds with each other. Below their explanation about the number of large quakes staying constant, they present a chart. Not included in the chart data (but is included above it) is the number of average earthquakes for that particular magnitude. For the last eleven years, including this partial year, there would be 44 data points for quakes in the 5, 6, 7, and 8 magnitude. Of those 44, 22 are running above the average. Half of the categories are higher than average, which means it is not "fairly constant."
"A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day."
If we accept their explanation about advanced sensitive seismological instruments in more places are helping them to locate more earthquakes each year, let's cut off the data at 2005 and start from 2006 (meaning we look at three and a half years of data). I cannot believe that in the last three years the USGS has placed so many new seisomological pieces of equipment at every station so that the data would be gathered at such a dramatically increased pace. Looking at the last few years, we have 24 data points, and we are still running more than fifty percent above average.
red indicates categories exceeding annual average
You can search for yourself. The USGS allows data input by year, depth, magnitude, and intensity. I searched for year and magnitude. The USGS's insistence that earthquakes are not increasing is not supported by the data. I agree, one year of higher than average earthquakes in a category or two would be an anomaly. However, almost every category running higher than average for several years in a row, is not an anomaly. It is a pattern.
Christians know that one of God's signature languages is earthquakes. Throughout human history He has used them to demonstrate His power, His wrath, and His promises. A keyword search for "earthquake" in the bible results in many examples, here. One of them is:
"From the LORD of hosts you will be punished with thunder and earthquake and loud noise, With whirlwind and tempest and the flame of a consuming fire." (Isaiah 29:6)
One of them will be: "And there were flashes of lightning and sounds and peals of thunder; and there was a great earthquake, such as there had not been since man came to be upon the earth, so great an earthquake was it, and so mighty." (Rev 16:18)
We are promised that the signs of the end will contain earthquakes: "For nation will rise up against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; there will be earthquakes in various places; there will also be famines. These things are merely the beginning of birth pangs." (Mark 13:8)
Who are you going to believe? Man, who says everything is normal and earthquakes are not increasing? Or God, who said He will send earthquakes as a sign of the beginning of the birthpangs? I always believe God and I can see that earthquakes are increasing. This means Jesus will return soon, because we're promised that as soon as you see these things begin to happen, look up, for your Redemption draws nigh. Are you ready?
Thank you for such a great website! I did the same research for my blog site. You are right. The stats for magnatude 8.0+ tell the whole story. I do not see how the "experts" can deny the USGS data. One of the problems is that they average their findings. If you average over 100 years it tells you nothing about frequency trends.
ReplyDeleteI also was suprised to find experts downplaying the evidence of increased volcanic activity, stating basicly the same reason that there is much better reporting now. The problem is that volcanoes leave evidence of past activity.
You don't have to post this but please check out my site: endtimeproof.org
I think we should go back to what Scripture appears to be saying. When Jesus spoke of 'wars and rumours of wars' and 'famines and pestilences' he never mentioned that there would be an increase in these things, only that we would get to HEAR about them.
ReplyDeleteThat is the kind of world we are living in, one in which there is increased communication, and we get to hear about all these things, unlike in the past.
So even if there is not an increase in these earthquakes, that does not in any way invalidate Scripture.
In the communication age, we 'hear' of wars and rumors of wars, and famines, earhquakes and pestilences.
Therefore it makes no difference at all.
By the way, I like your website, it's very interesting.
Thank you and all the best,
Sue.
Good point! Let's do go back to what Jesus said about hearing.
DeleteThe verse in Mt 24:6 reads: "You will be hearing of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not frightened, for those things must take place, but that is not yet the end."
I looked up the Greek word to hear, listen is from: akoúō – properly, to hear (listen); (figuratively) to hear God's voice which prompts Him to birth faith within
So it is evident that the signs He sends are deliberately and exactly to bring people to faith. These signs are warnings to allow the Spirit ti give birth to the faith within. Those who don't, I am reminded of Paul's warning in Romans 1:18, "The wrath of God is being revealed from heaven against all the godlessness and wickedness of men who suppress the truth by their wickedness,'
They suppress the nascent flame of faith that the signs are meant to kindle!
I agree that though the data shows the earthquakes are increasing, they do not validate scripture, you're right about that. Scripture validates itself. Good point and can't be said enough.
Thank you for reading!