Tuesday, October 23, 2012

(UPDATE) Meteorologists watching potential for catastrophic storm- NY/NE

UPDATE October 25 (Thurs).

As we get closer to landfall and the models become more precise, I'll provide updates here. This news article is from two hours ago.

Huge combo storm may pummel East Coast next week
"Much of the U.S. East Coast has a good chance of getting blasted by gale-force winds, flooding, heavy rain and maybe even snow early next week by an unusual hybrid of hurricane and winter storm, federal and private forecasters say. Though still projecting several days ahead of Halloween week, the computer models are spooking meteorologists. Government scientists said Wednesday the storm has a 70 percent chance of smacking the Northeast and mid-Atlantic."

"Hurricane Sandy in the Caribbean, an early winter storm in the West, and a blast of arctic air from the North are predicted to collide, sloshing and parking over the country's most populous coastal corridor starting Sunday. The worst of it should peak early Tuesday, but it will stretch into midweek, forecasters say."

"It'll be a rough couple days from Hatteras up to Cape Cod," said forecaster Jim Cisco of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction center in College Park, Md. "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting."

"Some have compared it to the so-called Perfect Storm that struck off the coast of New England in 1991, but Cisco said that one didn't hit as populated an area and is not comparable to what the East Coast may be facing. Nor is it like last year's Halloween storm, which was merely an early snowstorm in the Northeast."

"This has much more mess potential because it is a combination of different storm types that could produce a real whopper of weather problems, meteorologists say."

"The Perfect Storm only did $200 million of damage and I'm thinking a billion," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the private service Weather Underground. "Yeah, it will be worse.""

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A combination of "very unusual" and intense weather systems and effects are converging to create the potential for another superstorm, akin to the "Perfect Storm" of 1991. In that storm, "also known as the Halloween Nor'easter of 1991, was a nor'easter that absorbed Hurricane Grace and ultimately evolved into a small hurricane late in its life cycle." (Wiki). In this week's storm, it also may absorb tropical storm Sandy (predicted to become a hurricane) and combined with a "very unusual" dip in the Jet Stream, and an intense low pressure in Canada sweeping down, possibly creating conditions forecasters are saying would be "quite concerning", a combination of a "extreme nor'easter and a hurricane," potentially "devastating" a "threat," and an "extraordinarily unusual and extreme storm."

The Wall Street Weather Journal guy cites other forecasters, stating, "the local National Weather Service with responsibility for New York City has called the situation “ominious,” and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, who has responsibility to forecast large impact weather events nationwide said on Sunday that the “potential impact is impressive.” What could happen is quite complicated, and may have precedence only a handful of times across the more than 200 years of detailed historical local weather recordkeeping (Big storms in 1804, 1841, 1991, and 2007 come immediately to mind)."

Time will tell as to whether this complicated series of factors will converge to produce the seriously ominous storm the forecasters are tracking, so keep an eye out for all weather developments as the week progresses. If this thing combines to make the storm they hope will not form, evacuations would be called. Make sure you have batteries, fresh water, an evacuation route planned, gas for the car, warm clothing, and a few day's food you can prepare without electricity.

If it does not form, then we can all breathe a sigh of relief and say trick or treat! Until the next time...

2 comments:

  1. Pray it isn't so, Elizabeth! My husband and I are heading to the Berkshires for a week on Friday!

    Kim

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Keep your eyes peeled! The European computer forecasting model, the one the meteorologist in the link above says is the most accurate, predicts dire consequences for New England. This news article says:

      "Some computer models continue to simulate a crushing storm for early next week near or close to the East Coast. The explosive storm develops as tropical storm (or hurricane) Sandy merges with a powerful cold front charging towards the East Coast late this weekend. Although a historic storm is a possibility, the storm could deliver just a glancing blow or even miss the East Coast entirely."

      If it hits it will be crushing to New England but if it goes out to sea just a little bit it will be stormy but not devastating. I hope the storm swerves out to sea But best to be aware and prepared just in case.

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/tropical-storm-sandy-scenarios-northeast-smash-or-out-to-sea-most-likely/2012/10/23/29e6f7ce-1d41-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost

      Delete

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